ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that worldwide cereal production will total approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This marks a 2% decrease compared to the record crop achieved in 2025. Additionally, the latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this annual decline, global cereal output is projected to remain the second highest ever recorded, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
Much of the downward trend is driven by weaker maize performance, with production expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes. Drier and hotter weather conditions lowered yield expectations in parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland experienced some of the most significant downward revisions. India and Paraguay also saw smaller reductions, while increased yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset the decline. Both South American producers are on track for maize crops well above their recent averages.
The outlook for wheat has improved compared to earlier assessments, although global production remains below last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now forecasts a harvest of 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Improved yield expectations boosted the outlook for Canada and Morocco. Projections for Russia and Ukraine also rose, although dry conditions reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production in 2026 still lags 3.8% behind 2025 levels.
Weakness in maize drags down overall global grain production
For the 2026/27 season, global rice output is forecast at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This indicates a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of the previous season. Better crop results in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to this outlook, but they did not fully compensate for weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Additionally, U.S. rice planting has fallen to levels not seen in decades, reducing its expected contribution to global supplies.
Estimated world cereal consumption for 2026/27 stands at 2.965 billion tonnes, representing a 0.2% increase from the previous season. While coarse grains and rice consumption are projected to rise, wheat use is expected to decline from last year’s high levels. The forecast for global rice utilization reaches 559 million tonnes as demand for food increases with population growth. Feed demand continues to support coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High cereal stock levels persist despite a lowered production outlook
The global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 season are projected to reach 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the earlier forecast but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below last season’s 31.9%. Reserves of wheat are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas smaller maize and barley inventories largely explain the overall decrease in global stock estimates.
International trade in cereals for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. This volume remains below the record trade level seen in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by increased maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% lower than the record established during 2025.