MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-term development plan for its coal sector, aiming for an annual output of 662 million tonnes by 2050 within its forecast scenario. This initiative extends the country’s coal policy through the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal. Consequently, the new target signifies a significant growth from the current level. The government approved this programme under Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the programme lays out multiple production pathways. Its primary scenario anticipates a production of 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. This then rises to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals; the stress scenario estimates 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative case 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario around 586.4 million tonnes.
The long-term benchmarks also encompass coal exports. Under the main scenario, export volumes are projected at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and then climbing to 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme additionally addresses domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction techniques, and regional production levels.
Eastern Siberia and Far East to assume greater production roles
The government strategy emphasizes a larger share of coal output for the Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East regions. These regions accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s total coal production in 2024. By 2050, their combined contribution is projected to increase between 53.9% and 56.7%, depending on the scenario. Russia also reports over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The plan mandates that existing mining capacities continue operations, while new resource zones are developed to meet future production objectives.
Coal processing and extraction methods are assigned specific numerical targets under the plan. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) made up 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to raise this proportion to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of Russia’s coal production in 2024, with the long-term goal of increasing that share to between 82% and 85%. The programme also incorporates initiatives on labor efficiency, mining technology, safety standards, and environmental regulations.
Three-phase approach guides implementation through 2050
Russia plans to execute the coal development programme in three distinct phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, will focus on immediate industry growth and production strategies. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will address processing capacities, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will coordinate the programme’s execution alongside other federal and regional agencies, providing annual progress reports to the Ministry of Economic Development, as mandated by government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This replaces the previous coal industry programme through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the new plan envisions a sixfold increase in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050, with the broader economic multiplier effect estimated at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains within the primary scenario but is not the sole pathway for future production.