BRUSSELS, Belgium / EuroWire.IO / – Tight conditions in global gas markets could last well into 2027 as Europe starts winter with its lowest gas storage levels since 2013, the International Energy Agency said. The warning came in the IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026, published on November 3. The agency said low European inventories could increase the region’s reliance on global supplies of liquefied natural gas this winter.
According to the report, reduced storage buffers leave Europe more vulnerable to supply shortages, especially if the winter is colder than expected or gas flows face further disruption. Countries will also need to replenish stocks during summer 2027, which could keep European demand high and prolong pressure on global markets. The IEA said EU storage could drop below 10% of capacity by the end of March 2027 in a severe scenario.
Storage sites were about 65% full at the end of August, around 17 percentage points below the five-year average, TASS reported. EU rules require member states to reach 90% at some point between October 1 and December 1, with flexibility in difficult conditions. The EU’s gas import bill declined in the first quarter as LNG volumes rose. Russian gas output rose 3.3% in the first nine months of 2026, official data showed.
Demand to fall 1.5% this year
The IEA expects global gas demand to drop by around 1.5% in 2026, or close to 65 billion cubic metres. Lower industrial consumption in Europe and gas-to-coal switching in power generation across several Asian countries are among the main reasons. Global LNG supply is forecast to fall by 3%, or almost 20 billion cubic metres, over the same year. Demand in the Middle East is also expected to fall, according to Energy Live News.
The decline in supply follows the effective halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz between March and October. LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE dropped by more than 60 billion cubic metres in that period. The IEA said rising output from North America, along with more flexible trading arrangements, offset part of the shortfall. Asian buyers doubled their LNG imports from the Atlantic Basin, mainly from the United States.
Prices at highest since energy crisis
The disruption pushed Asian and European gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022-23 energy crisis. Asian spot LNG prices averaged $21.50 per million British thermal units between March and October, almost 80% higher than a year earlier. European benchmark prices averaged nearly $20, up about 70%. The IEA said the episode underlined the market’s vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and disruption along major supply routes.
The agency called for stronger international cooperation on gas supply security, as well as more flexible trading and storage arrangements to limit price volatility. It also estimated cumulative global LNG supply losses of around 150 billion cubic metres between 2026 and 2030, partly due to damaged infrastructure in Qatar, Oil & Gas 360 reported. Europe must secure enough gas for winter while rebuilding reserves next year.