GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its projection for the increase in global merchandise trade in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This revised forecast more than doubles the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The boost reflects stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, adjustments in supply chains, and heightened investments in artificial intelligence equipment. During the initial six months of 2026, the volume of global merchandise trade grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO further anticipates merchandise trade will expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant factor behind the improved trade figures is the demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other devices essential for building computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-related goods surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, WTO estimates suggest that global investment in AI infrastructure will rise by at least 30 percent in 2026.
Energy markets and shipping sectors encountered notable disruptions during this period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other production areas mitigated the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide decreased roughly 1 percent. Through July, global container throughput grew by 3.9 percent, as trade shifted to alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
Technological demand bolsters growth in goods trade
The prospects for the services sector are less optimistic than those for merchandise trade. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for growth in commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. The sectors of transport and international travel experienced softer results amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. For the first half, arrivals were still 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also slowed during the same quarter.
Certain service categories, however, continued to expand at faster rates. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have grown by 12 percent in the second. Exports of financial services rose 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth rate for commercial services trade in 2027. It also expects global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by an increase of 2.9 percent in the subsequent year.
Asia Forecasted to Lead Regional Export Growth
Regional outlooks reveal significant variations in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is projected to see an export growth of 9.9 percent in 2026. North America is expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is forecast to increase exports by 5.6 percent. South America is anticipated to achieve a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe is predicted to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East’s outlook remains the weakest, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports also differ markedly across regions. Asia is forecasted to have import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to rise by 1.4 percent, in contrast to a 0.5 percent growth forecast for Europe. Meanwhile, merchandise imports in the Middle East are expected to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that recent trade data demonstrate resilience despite uneven impacts stemming from economic and geopolitical disruptions.